From World Economic Forum
Cybersecurity futures 2025: What the scenarios got right, and what we learned
By Nick Merrill and Steven Weber
In 2018, the UC Berkeley Center for Long-Term Cybersecurity (CLTC) partnered with CNA’s Institute for Public Research to develop scenariosexploring potential “cybersecurity futures” for 2025. Now that 2025 is here, we ask, how did we do?
We conducted a detailed “postmortem” on our scenarios to understand which signals we correctly identified and those we missed, collecting those insights for lessons learned.
The original 2025 scenarios
Quantum leap
Early breakthroughs in quantum computing prompted attempts to establish a global non-proliferation regime. These efforts failed as quantum technology spread beyond original state control to multiple countries and criminal networks.
Non-proliferation efforts slowed competitors but rarely stopped them, leading major powers to consider accelerating quantum dissemination to allies instead of containment.
The new wiggle room
The push to use secure digital technology, the internet of things and machine learning to quantify individual and social life led to an unexpected dilemma: the loss of constructive ambiguity.
As hyper-precise data eliminated the small uncertainties that smooth social, legal and economic interactions, people sought new flexibility through multiple, fluid digital identities. This created new security challenges around identity management and verification...
Nick Merrill graduated from the Ph.D. program in 2018. He is now the Director of the Daylight Lab at UC Berkeley.
Steven Weber is currently an emeritus professor. He was the Associate Dean and Head of School for the School of Information, and Faculty Director for the Center for Long Term Cybersecurity.
