Oct 10, 2022

Andrew Reddie Weighs In on Nuclear War Probability

From The Epoch Times (Paywall)

One in Six Chance of Worldwide Nuclear War: Physicist’s Post Goes Viral

By Nathan Worcester

With the Russia-Ukraine war still raging, physicist and cosmologist Max Tegmark has
estimated the odds of global nuclear war in the near future at one in six, in an article
and a social media post that went viral...

“Predicting the future represents an interminable problem for analysts—and Tegmark’s analysis could end up being right, but could just as easily be wrong,” Andrew Reddie, an assistant professor at the University of California, Berkeley School of Information with expertise in wargaming, nuclear weapons policy, and related topics, told The Epoch Times in an Oct. 10 email.

Reddie, who also founded the Berkeley Risk and Security Lab, wondered about the sources of Tegmark’s probabilities, “for fear that they are being pulled from thin air.”

“The post is primarily useful for driving an important conversation regarding the increased risks of nuclear conflict and its existential consequences, rather than the merits of analysis itself,” he added.


Andrew Reddie is an assistant professor of practice of cybersecurity at the School of Information. 

Last updated: October 12, 2022