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Competition to cable television
as the dominant means of delivering video programming via wired
infrastructures to the home is starting to emerge. A few areas
have competitive overbuilds and in others innovative broadband service
providers (BSPs) are using digital systems to deliver video services.
Recent studies by the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) and
the General Accountability Office (GAO) have documented the benefits
to consumers from this emerging competition.
(The GAO’s new name became effective July 7, 2004; the reports
use the name listed at the time the source material was published.)
This page provides links to our recent work in this area.
- (July
2008) Update of the statewide and
regional studies (see beow) to focus on the City and County of
San Francisco
- Report
(4 pages; 130 kB Adobe PDF file)
- (August
2006)
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Pete Wilson and Yale Braunstein discuss video competition
on Pete’s KGO radio show, August 18, 2006.
These mp3 audio tracks can be listened to via most
media players or downloaded to the device of your choice.
| Track |
Start time |
Description |
| 1 |
01:38 |
Pete Wilson opening |
| 2 |
03.23 |
PW on changes in video competition |
| 3 |
04.34 |
PW introduces YB |
| 4 |
14.10 |
starts again |
| 6 |
26.25 |
back to YB |
| 7 |
38.10 |
more call-ins |
| 8 |
47.00 |
final call-ins & conclusion |
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- (April 2006) Paper on
"Expected Consumer Benefits from Wired Video Competition
in California"
(Documents that consumer benefits from competition can reach $1
billion annually)
- Report (Statewide --
6 pages; 110 kB Adobe PDF file)
- Excel
spreadsheet showing calculations
- One-page factsheet
(284 kB Adobe PDF file)
- Regional reports: Slightly shorter
versions of the statewide report focusing on each of the four
major DMAs in California
(Each approx. 106 kB Adobe PDF file)
- Selected
editorial coverage
- Editorial
in the San Diego Union-Tribune
(May 1, 2006)
- Editorial
in the San Francisco
Chronicle (May 4, 2006)
- Additional research in response to
questions
- My report has received a lot of coverage
in the press and in blogs; it has also generated a number of
questions. I have chosen
to use a few of these questions as the basis for additional
research and model-building.
I shall post the results as they become available.
First, a few caveats: No one can accurately and perfectly
predict the future. However,
it is possible to develop logical models that give reasonable
insights into what may occur.
These models and their outputs should be viewed in that
light.
- Question
1: “Can you estimate where the subscribers
to new wired video competitors will come from? Will they all come from existing cable
subscribers or from satellite subscribers or will there be some
who previously did not subscribe to any pay service?” (May 2006)
- Answer: I combined the results of an ACI survey of subscribers in
four Texas regions with existing
demographics and subscription patterns in California. I estimate that the new entrants will
get approximately 544,128 new subscribers in California who previously had no pay
service (i.e., no previous cable or satellite service). At a statewide average of 2.87 persons
per household, this is approximately 1,561,647 new viewers.
The calculations are shown in an Excel
worksheet.
- Question
2: “Can you estimate what will happen
to local franchise fees as additional providers offer wired
video programming?” (August
2006)
- Answer: I expanded the model in Answer 1 to include these calculations.
This is in the form of an Excel
spreadsheet. Under
my guidance, Jeff Decker has developed a web-based calculator
to do much the same thing. Try it out and let us know how you like
it. Calculator thumbnail:
- Question
3: “You have estimated annual savings
to California
subscribers in the range of $692 million to $1.015 billion. This is a lot of money--can you put it
in perspective?” (August
2006)
- Answer: As the report shows, the expected savings per subscriber
is in the range of $8.46 - $12.41 per month. Overall, this amounts to between $1.9
million and $2.78 million per day across the state.
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This is a list of past written work in
this area, approximately in chronological order. Unless a link is provided, I do not know of
any electronic sources for these items:
“Economic Effects of
State Regulation of Cable Television,” in H. S. Dordick, ed., Proceedings of the Sixth Annual
Telecommunications Policy Research Conference (Lexington, 1979).
“Recent Trends in
Cable Television Related to the Prospects for New Television Networks,”
report to FCC Network Inquiry Special Staff, 1979.
“The Impact of Firm
Size and Subscriber Scale on Cable Television Services” (with K. Kalba),
Kalba Bowen Associates report, 1978. Submission to CRTC, “Application for
control of Canadian Cablesystems” and to FTC Inquiry into Concentration in
the Mass Media.
Review of Deregulation of Cable Television (P.
W. MacAvoy, ed.), Federal
Communications Law Journal, Vol. 30, No. 1 (Winter, 1977).
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